The role of integrated assessment models (IAMs) in long-term public and private decision making

Speakers:
Elmar Kriegler, PIK (Germany) – The use of IAMs for policy analysis
Keywan Riahi, IIASA (Austria) – The role of IAMs for the analysis of sustainable development

Discussants:
Martin Haigh, Senior Analyst and lead on Shell’s world energy model, Shell International
Jonathan Tecwyn, Head of Energy Pathways Modelling Team, Analysis Directorate, The Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC)

Chair:
Neil Strachan, UCL

About the Seminar:
IAMs are a key methodological tool for investigating long term trade-offs between the energy system, the climate system and the broader economic system. Such models play a key underpinning role in the scientific debate on climate change mitigation and adaptation, in key assessments such as the IPCC, and in the full range of international and national policymaking initiative. Owning both to their prominence and their complexity, IAM models have generated considerable debate in their formulation and their application to decision making.
In this seminar at UCL, we will have two of the world’s leading integrated assessment modellers explain their approach and how IAMs are applied to the climate mitigation issue. In response we have two senior discussants from public and private energy roles to discuss how insights from such IAMs are used by their organisation and how IAMs can be further improved from their perspective. We will then have a moderated general Q&A.

Speaker Biographies:
Dr. Elmar Kriegler is senior scientist and vice chair of the Research Domain “Sustainable Solutions” at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK, Germany). His research focuses on the integrated assessment of climate change mitigation policies, scenario analysis and decision making under uncertainty. He is coordinator of the EU funded projects AMPERE and ADVANCE, and lead author of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the chapter on assessing transformation pathways of the energy and land-use system. Dr. Kriegler earned a Ph.D. in Physics at the University of Potsdam, Germany.

Prof. Dr. Keywan Riahi leads the Energy Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Austria). In addition, he holds a part-time position as Visiting Professor in the field of energy systems analysis at the Graz University of Technology, Austria. His main research interests are the long-term patterns of technological change and economic development and, in particular, the evolution of the energy system. In his present research he focuses on the development of globally consistent, national low-carbon development pathways and the linkages between climate change and multiple sustainable development objectives.
Prof. Dr. Riahi is a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) and a number of other international and European scenario activities. He has served as a Lead Author to various international Assessments, including the Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Martin Haigh has been working for Shell for twelve years, and has been a member of the Shell Scenarios Team for the last ten.  He looks after the energy modelling for the team, and has led the development of Shell’s World Energy Model, which has underpinned the last two Shell scenario rounds.  He speaks frequently on energy-related issues and takes particular interests in energy technology development and environmental change.  His background is mathematics, with experience in mathematical and economic modelling in the transport and telecoms industries, as well as for energy.

Jonathan Tecwyn is the Head of Energy Pathways Modelling at Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). He is currently working on Optimal Pathway analysis for the 5th Carbon Budget using the UK TIMES energy systems model. Previous DECC roles include Head of Model Quality Assurance and Climate Change Agreements analyst. He has a range of experience in applying Operational Research and Analytical techniques through six years as a Government Analyst in the Home Office and DECC.

Prof. Neil Strachan is an interdisciplinary energy economist. He is a Professor of Energy Economics and Modelling at UCL Energy Institute where he also serves as Deputy Director. He received his PhD in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University in 2000. Neil's research interests revolve around energy-environment-economic modelling, the quantification of scenarios and transitions pathways, and interdisciplinary issues in energy economics and policy. Over the last 8 years he has been principal or co-investigator on research projects worth over £10 million. This includes as principal investigator of wholeSEM. He was a lead author of the Energy Systems chapter of the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report. He is the author of over 30 peer reviewed journal papers, and over 100 book chapters and technical reports.